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Soft or Hard n/w
17 June 2017 14:30 Post ID: #1539708 - in reply to #1539487
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Durhamlion - 15/6/2017 08:40

Leon - Imagine you're selling your house for say £500K, but there are no takers

I come along and offer to buy it for £10 - would you sell it to me?

I'm guessing not as "No deal is better than a bad deal" - get the idea?


An almost non-existent parallel. The EU is the seller not the buyer in this case. Having said that, it's about as good a methaphor as anyone else has come up with.

Spouting something that is inherently not your negotiating position does not gain you any traction. The EU knows that falling back on WTO terms is a massive self-harm. Many cabinet members are in open revolt and we have the DUP wanting the weirdest hard brexit imaginable - remaining in the customs union and allowing cheap migrants to work in agriculture - you work that one out??

All of the Leave arguments are falling apart as we speak. Look at all the major leave campaigners' arguments during the referendum. All of them Hannan. Johnson even Farage himself told us that we would stay in the Single Market. Why? Because they need us more than we need them. Now, realising this isn't the case they are saying everyone voted for a hard Brexit - simply not true. Hannan who recently claimed (I don't know anyone who voted for a soft Brexit) said on the day of the result we would keep Free Movement and remain in the Single Market. Yes nobody voted for a soft Brexit but they were led to believe that we would not lose out on membership (not access) to the World's biggest market.

The game is up Davis and May have long stated that we would go to Brussels and demand a deal on Trade simultaneously with our negotiations to leave. The EU's stance from the outset has been; no trade deal negotiations until 1. the bill for leaving is agreed, 2. the border issue in Ireland is resolved 3. the treatment of all EU migrants is sorted out.

On Monday Davis is going to Brussels for the first talks the only items on the agenda are; 1. the bill for leaving is agreed, 2. the border issue in Ireland is resolved 3. the treatment of all EU migrants is sorted out.

Congratulations control has been taken back.
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17 June 2017 18:50 Post ID: #1539732 - in reply to #1538943
Legend MO
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Leon, why is trading on WTO terms such a bad thing, sure there will be winners and losers (as there currently is now)

Ruth Lea CBE is Economic Adviser at the Arbuthnot Banking Group, and writes

"It is in both the UK’s and the EU27’s economic interests to agree such a deal. Concerning goods, it is arguably more in the EU27’s interests that tariff-free trade continues than in the UK’s as it runs such an enormous visible trade surplus with the UK. According to the latest figures the UK’s visible trade deficit with the EU was £89.0bn in 2015. The deficit with Germany alone was £31.1bn. Deficits were also sizeable with the Netherlands (£14.8bn), Belgium-Luxembourg (£9.5bn), Italy (£7.5bn), France (6.4bn), and Spain (£5.1bn).

The prospects for a bespoke deal are, therefore, reasonably positive. But, if there is no bespoke agreement, then the default position would be that the UK, a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), would trade under WTO rules. The UK would, for example, face the EU Common External Tariff as EU exporters would face the tariffs adopted by the UK. There is, however, convincing evidence that trade can thrive under this regime, given favourable commercial circumstances. Preferential trade deals may oil the wheels of international commerce, but their importance should be kept in perspective. If the commercial circumstances are adverse, trade will not thrive, irrespective of special trade agreements.

Moreover, over the last decade not only has UK exports to the non-EU grown quicker than with the EU, but UK exports to non-EU countries that have no preferential trade deals with the EU has been buoyant. If the UK trades with the EU under WTO rules then UK exporters will, as noted already, face the EU’s Common External Tariff. But, as William Norton argues in a recent paper for Civitas, such costs should be quite manageable and could be mitigated. His basic conclusions were:

In the absence of any agreement with the EU, imports from the EU will raise £12.9bn for the Treasury in duties, whilst UK exporters will face £5.2bn in total in tariffs on their exports to the EU.
WTO rules on subsidies provide sufficient flexibility for the Government to implement “horizontal” programmes to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Such programmes are economy-wide measures which are not specific to any identifiable industry, and are not tied in principle or in practice to compensating for the exact cost of tariffs on exports"
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17 June 2017 20:44 Post ID: #1539735 - in reply to #1538943
MOnster
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CHUCK THE REMAINERS IN THE FUCKING SEA!
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17 June 2017 22:28 Post ID: #1539741 - in reply to #1538943
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Here we go again Ruth Lea. The fact that anyone will advocate a positive view on our chances of leaving the EU is always newsworthy in itself. Pick up any article in the financial press and you will find hundreds of articles saying the opposite - it simply isn't news. Incidentally her position has consistently been one of favouring a soft Brexit adopting a Swiss model and membership of the EEA. So now claiming WTO rules as a model is bit of surprise. Maybe being slightly more free market than the accepted orthodoxy is her thing.

our massive trade deficit should be seen as a serious long term problem but to Brexiteers it's a positive. Eventually this will need to be addressed but by leaving our largest export market, losing Passporting Rights for one of our only industries which posts an export surplus is hardly going to provide the investment to turn this around.

The "you need us more that we need you" bluff has already been played that is why May said we must leave the Single Market and the Customs Union. It failed.

I also find it quite disingenuous that those who have said "we voted to join an economic union not a political one" are the same to who believe the EU will give us a terrific trade deal based solely on economic self interest - it hasn't and won't happen.

We can make statements about how our growth with non-EU countries has grown but as usual that's where the figures end. We would have to expand our exports exponentially with the likes of China and India in order to redress the trade we do with The Netherlands.

Please I can't be bothered to counter but pick up the FT. look at the financial pages of The Times, The Guardian et al at random. You will find it hard to find anyone who believes a hard Brexit will be anything other than a disaster. Alternatively keep your ear tho the ground and come up with another free market pseudo-intellectual to fail to prove the exception to the rule.



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17 June 2017 22:38 Post ID: #1539743 - in reply to #1538943
Sir MO
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You make some valid points and I discussed it with my mrs this fine sunday morning... and the conclusion was that she wanted it hard and not soft .
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18 June 2017 06:29 Post ID: #1539751 - in reply to #1538943
Legend MO
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I shall have a butchers Leon, but I find it hard to believe all these experts as they have got it spectacularly wrong on so many occasions. A lot have their grubby fingers in the EU pie so wan't it to fail so we re enter via the back door with our tail between our legs.

Remember the impending disaster if we didn't join the euro?
Remember the Millenium bug when the clocks went to 2000 on all our electrical goods, then the world would end, planes would fall from the sky etc?

As for Leaving the EU:

Emergency budget - Didn't happen
Raising Income Tax - Didn't happen
WWIII - Didn't happen
End of Western Civilisation - (Tusk did actually say this!!) - Didn't happen
House Prices would crash - Didn't happen
Obama, Britain would be back of the queue - USA have said this won't happen
Job Losses - Didn't happen
Consumer panic - Didn't happen
Market Crash - Didn't happen
Recession - Didn't happen

Pretty sure you will say "we haven't left yet" but all this was "certain" to happen once we voted to leave if you remember. Remoaners just love to move the goalposts to make sure they are right. I cannot believe that the German / French car workers are really gonna let Merkel and Macron destroy thousands of jobs and lose billions of Euro's by being belligerent with the UK.

So forgive me if I take with a pinch of salt all of this doom & gloom. Sure there will be stormy seas ahead, as there always is, but the world market is a much better place to trade freely with rather than a bunch of Eurocrat official that we can never elect/unelect that has massive corruption at the heart of it and that costs us an absolute fortune to be in.

But at least you are finally accepting that "No deal is better than a bad deal"




Edited by Durhamlion 18/6/2017 06:30
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18 June 2017 08:38 Post ID: #1539759 - in reply to #1538943
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The point that I continue to make is that we have moved from the "sunlit uplands" to we will survive,

There was emergency measures taken after the referendum we went back to QE - which was a measure we used after the other major shock. We also abandoned plans to balance the budget by the end of the parliament - try to telling the nurses firemen etc that another 5 years of 1% wage growth is not a disaster (their incomes have fallen by 14% in real terms since 2010.). The Pound has fallen nearly 20%, and inflation is on the rise. All the crap about a falling pound will immediately stimulate our exports has been proven to be false. We have the lowest wage growth in the G7 and also now the lowest growth. A good 90% the analysis predicts the situation to worsen and this will put further pressure on our public services etc.

I do believe that the rest of the EU are prepared to sacrifice selling cars to us in the short term. However when you consider that we tend to import high end cars our propensity to buy will not be so greatly affected. To the EU, even now, they cannot see the possibility of us walking out without a deal, and should we do so. it will be a short term measure. The plan to do so has been scuppered and it will not happen, the resistance to it is now so great. Any attempt to do so will be taken as nothing short of an attempted coup.

We have the trade deals with most of the rest of the world as it stands through the EU, can't see why we would want to put any negotiations in the hands of those who are struggling to make a deal with their friends in the DUP.

I have never accepted that no deal is better than a bad deal, I would be interested to know how anyone could have possibly formed that conclusion.

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18 June 2017 09:22 Post ID: #1539764 - in reply to #1539741
MOnster
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leonmejico - 18/6/2017 00:28

I also find it quite disingenuous that those who have said "we voted to join an economic union not a political one" are the same to who believe the EU will give us a terrific trade deal based solely on economic self interest - it hasn't and won't happen.



But then you forget the latter part of political union, which pretty much rules out selling your children for an economic deal. I know you'd have done a deal with the Nazis, but some of us, 17 million, would not have. Although seeing so many wishing to not have a country any more, might as well have done.

leonmejico - 18/6/2017 00:28

Please I can't be bothered to counter but pick up the FT. look at the financial pages of The Times, The Guardian et al at random. You will find it hard to find anyone who believes a hard Brexit will be anything other than a disaster. Alternatively keep your ear tho the ground and come up with another free market pseudo-intellectual to fail to prove the exception to the rule.



What about a mag called The Economist? You'd think they'd know something. What's wrong with a Canada type deal?
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18 June 2017 09:35 Post ID: #1539765 - in reply to #1538943
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The will of the people

Survation Poll published in the mail on Sunday

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/876326696936493056
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18 June 2017 09:38 Post ID: #1539766 - in reply to #1538943
MOnster
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Perhaps Leon has membership to their new cocktail bar or access to the millions of pounds worth of wine or free entry to view the millions of pounds of art the new holy romans have gathered.

The lowest wage growth - stop fucking massaging the figures - UK had the lowest wage growth before the vote. Honestly, ask people on here how their wages stack up compared to twenty years ago! The money their company earns either goes in director pockets or gets sent to build roads in the east. So sacrifice the EU car market, what will happen then, some clever soul will start making cars in the UK for the British. What do you think would happen, people will just think "oh well no cars, let's buy an horse!?!"

It's funny how all of the UK's problems today are down to having left the EU, despite not having left yet and the problems existing previously, which is quite possibly why 17 million voted to kick the eu out.

Increased INFLATION - the best thing that has happened to the UK in two decades!

Leon keeps going on about trade deals and staying in because even if takes EU 20 years to make one trade deal, UK benefits... but keeps missing the point about political and military union, with the latter, the fucking former don't fucking matter! That rhymes.
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18 June 2017 09:43 Post ID: #1539767 - in reply to #1538943
MOnster
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Leon face it, you wish to have a UK population of 200 million people. It's not sustainable. At some point someone clever has got to realise that ten immigrants need ten more in a job and an house and it continues. For what reason, for growth, to pay people's pensions because they didn't ensure their own pension in their own lifetime, paid for them fucking selves? Fucking ridiculous situation!
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18 June 2017 09:44 Post ID: #1539768 - in reply to #1538943
MOnster
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read the report that fucking the eu off and a change in farming regulations would mean the UK can feed itself? Nah fucking thought not.
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18 June 2017 09:46 Post ID: #1539769 - in reply to #1538943
MOnster
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I still can't believe 50% of the eu budget went to farmers and will continue to do so. Capitalism doesn't work if that is the solution. Fucking nora!

Edited by numbernine 18/6/2017 09:50
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18 June 2017 10:34 Post ID: #1539772 - in reply to #1538943
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Whoever said all of the ills of the UK economy was down to Brexit - certainly not me. The point hat I have made is our ability to put things right will be severely hampered by leaving.

We had intervention pricing in UK farming since the 19th century it certainly didn't start with the Common Agricultural Policy so please Lee what would you do on this complex issue?
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18 June 2017 17:13 Post ID: #1539791 - in reply to #1538943
MOnster
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Give me a week and I'll get back to you on farming, but there is something seriously suspicious in that food is a major component in a human living but that most are getting so fucking fat they can't fit through their front door and almost half of all food cultivated or manufactured is thrown away, but a farmer can't make enough to live on or sustain their land.

Suspicious that humans are kept on 3% of the land and 97% is freely available in our own fucking country, as a population the land we ourselves own - nevermind the Queen, it's words on a bit of paper. That despite wages staying very low and hardly increasing for twenty years, the price of housing and rental fees has more than trebled.

In recent comments United Nations Agenda 21 was brought up. Interesting that our generation seems to be the one to be taking the fucking piss out of.
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18 June 2017 18:01 Post ID: #1539795 - in reply to #1538943
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So again I ask Leon:

Imagine if the EU say to us we will give you 1 deal and 1 deal only and that is we want £10,000 Billion per hour, UK has to accept every refugee going and has to pay to access the market and for that you can wipe Junkers arse and pay a also 100% export tariff

Are you honestly telling me you would deal??
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18 June 2017 21:05 Post ID: #1539801 - in reply to #1539795
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Durhamlion - 18/6/2017 18:01

So again I ask Leon:

Imagine if the EU say to us we will give you 1 deal and 1 deal only and that is we want £10,000 Billion per hour, UK has to accept every refugee going and has to pay to access the market and for that you can wipe Junkers arse and pay a also 100% export tariff

Are you honestly telling me you would deal??


So after numerous exchanges this is what it boils down to. I was wondering what the bad deal could be but Durham has enlightened me. Shows just how ill-advised Davis and his mob are, Firstly he will be negotiating with Barnier not Juncker. The EU have no power to make a member state take in refugees. Tariffs are levied on imports not exports. should Davis' fears become real, I'd appreciate your your inside knowledge and maybe I my amateurish views may change.

Wiping Juncker's arse would be the least of our embarrassments.

Edited by leonmejico 18/6/2017 21:13
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